Air con sales: Heatwaves spike but AC sales growth cools; makers trim 2025 forecast to 10–15%

Despite a heatwave sweeping across northern and eastern India, room air-conditioner (RAC) industry is heading into the second half of 2025 with low expectations. Although June saw a spike in sales due to the heat, patchy weather and unexpected rains in many areas have led major AC makers to cut their growth forecast to just 10–15% for the year. Traditionally the strongest season for RAC sales, this summer has left AC makers underwhelmed. Early optimism in February and March, triggered by an early onset of summer, led companies to build up inventory and forecast robust growth, some aiming as high as 25 to 30 per cent year-on-year. But unseasonal rainfall and fluctuating temperatures quickly dampened that outlook. “We all had planned for a 25 to 30 per cent growth, which is not going to take place. This is a disappointing summer; that is the truth. It is part and parcel of the game,” said Blue Star managing director B Thiagarajan. “We have to manage the situation and move forward.” He further noted that while the June quarter may end up being weak, there’s hope for a recovery in the festive season and later in the year when energy rating norms change, typically prompting pre-buying due to discounts on older models. The India meteorological department (IMD) had recently forecast a drop in temperatures mid-June, with cooler winds and thunderstorms expected from a western disturbance, further affecting AC demand. Voltas MD & CEO Pradeep Bakshi echoed the concerns, revealing that the industry has seen minimal to negative growth in the last two months. “Rather, actually, there has been a de-growth for the industry. So, I don’t think people are now looking at big growth numbers in the first quarter (June quarter). Hitting last year’s number would itself be a challenge,” he said.After losing April and May, it’s difficult to recover in the rest 10 months, Bakshi added. However, he noted that a recent spike in temperatures, particularly in the north, could bring some late relief. “It looks difficult that in the balance of the month, achieving the last year’s target. Last year’s achievement and overshooting it by 25 per cent looks a bit of a challenge.” Haier Appliances India President N S Satish painted a similarly mixed picture. Year-to-date growth in RAC sales stood at 30 per cent, he said, but April and May saw a decline of 10–15 per cent. June, however, showed signs of revival, thanks to a heatwave-led rise in impulse buying. “In fact, if I compare June last year versus this year’s June sell-out, it’s almost now 20 per cent plus to the consumer,” Satish noted. “Last year was an unprecedented summer. On that, if the industry is still growing, it is a tremendous performance.” He too estimated overall annual growth to settle at around 10–15 per cent.India’s room air-conditioner market is among the fastest-growing in the world, with over 12 to 15 companies competing in a space estimated at around 15 million units.